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I read a blog on Wunderground and the guy said that even though hurricane season is not yet over, he thinks it is for the U.S. He said he would expect a trop storm from that area in the SW Caribbean, but he doesn't think it will effect the US mainland. He said the cooler temps should cool the waters and added shear should defy development. How true is this? Can this new disturbance in the Caribbean threaten Fla or anywhere else in the US?
Waters are cooling, but are still sufficiently warm to support a fairly strong tropical system, especially one coming up from the Caribbean. Based on current model forecasts and also climatology, upper-level winds will not be favorable for anything that tries to affect the U.S. in the near future, but we'll have to see how the upper-level pattern evolves with respect to the next possible system.
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