typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Wed Oct 26 2005 11:40 AM
Re: latest TWO

"can assure you that there is no nepotism involved with the current state meteorologist of Florida, Ben Nelson. For one, he's not related to anyone in the administration. He is young and while he has been through a few storms before, he's still learning on the job. The position has seen some turnover over the past few years, so he hasn't been in the position all that long. He has done a fine job in his time in the post and has worked his way up the ladder quickly through his work. One little hiccup isn't going to make a big difference -- and truthfully, a lot of people have slipped over the past few days and gotten the storm names mixed up.

Remember -- his job isn't so much to predict where storms are going as it is to repackage the information out there from the NHC & other official sources and make it easy for the public to understand. His work is one of the reasons why Florida is prepared for these storms and comes across that way to the rest of the nation as well. "


--The use of the term nepotism (apologize for the spelling previously..) was intended for levity and it was hoped (though air apparent the motive was lost?) that it would be taken sardonically. Margie made a funny comment, so I thought I'd follow up with my own inimitable brand of cynical humor. BUT, seeing as the comment was taken as holy, I assume then that you were just being kind in notifying me that there is no nepotism involved in Florida? That may very well be true, however, anyone privy to the truths and cloaked schemes that are inherently integral and real about our culture, and always have been (who are we kidding) from public to private affairs, must be willing to conclude that if that is true in Florida, they are the only exception rather than the rule Now, it may also be true that the State Met is just who he is and has no connection to current administrations... Like I said, I didn't see the interview.

"Area in the SW Caribbean needs to be watched...it's not going to move much over the next few days, so whether or not it remains over water is going to be critical to its development. Ultimate path could take it inland over Central America to its demise or, in the long-term, across Cuba and through the Bahamas ahead of another trough of low pressure. Tangential threat to Florida could be there again, but I don't think it'll be the sort seen from Wilma. "

Absolutely! I am on the fence with the track... As of 5pm I'd be real surprised if this wasn't classified as a depression because as the daylight was emerging over the cloud tops of this disturbance on visible imagery there was an undeniable, unmistakable and concerted twisting motion taking place. I don't believe the proximity to land is a huge detriment in this case. The closest adversely affective landmass are really the continent of S. America, because the Ismuth of Panama is surrounded on both sides by deep oceanic heat content and the land bridge its self is quite narrow and therefore offering little ability to modify pure marine based tropical air (There are some mountain there believe it or not, however) That being said, there is also an excited tendency for low-pressure in the general area of the central/western Caribbean, do to teleconnectors abroad. So, any slow mover would have a favorable environment for back-building convection.. This has been noted in the passed, where contributes to preventing circulation centers from moving inland because the circulation thus has the wherewithal to continuously reposition just off shores - prime candidate for that sort of behavior here. We'll see...

"Word of caution with using SSTs in the Gulf -- all of those SSTs are taken in the shallow near-coastal waters, particularly those north of Tampa in the shallow Apalachee Bay region. Waters out in the Gulf 10mi or more (except in Apalachee Bay) are still in the 80s and are much slower to respond to changes in the overall environment. While other conditions currently preclude any development in the Gulf, notably stable low levels and strong vertical wind shear, SSTs really aren't one of them. Sure, anything heading into the NE Gulf would likely weaken to landfall, but not dramatically so unless it was a major hurricane to begin with. "

--Right... I was actually speaking in deference to someone elseís assertion that the water was dramatically cooler, which I disagreed with.. In earlier post I mentioned that it was likely that condition was transient in nature; which is much along the lines of what you are intimating.

"Another note of caution -- Wilma's probably more the exception than the rule when it comes to major hurricanes at such a high latitude. It set the record for the latest major hurricane to make a US landfall. ..it's highly, highly unlikely to see another major storm hit the US this season....All of the major storms that have affected northern latitudes have been in August and September, maybe early October -- but not late October. The environmental conditions heading into New England/the NE US or the Canadian Maritimes cannot support a cat 2/3 storm at this point in time."

--Like I said...Barring seasonal fluxes, which is code for westerlies allowing.... However, I would caution, it is risky business to assume certain behavior based purely on passed performance... But you know this, I assume.

" I should note that any storm of any intensity heading that way is going to be partially baroclinically driven and undergoing extratropical transition, creating a whole new set of concerns."

--That is actually true even for your August/September storms as they are translating to latitudes near New England.. You simply cannot get a powerful hurricane to turn the corner and come up the East Coast without gulping drier continental air into its backside, which almost immediately implies a horizontal thermal gradient and subsequent baroclinic genesis subtending S beneath the event... But it terms of calendar relativity...I always thought it possible - though almost rare to the point of never happening - to have seriously cold air and low and mid levels and a super-intense baroclinic field, with a very powerful U/A shortwave rounding the base of a meridianal trough expression, and still have a hurricane in the Bahamas ready to ingest into that... Imagine that - having a 1991 like super-union, but have it take place near the coast while H850mb thickness' are conducive to snow?! If something like that happened, it would have to be in December - perhaps better material for sci-fi but for a few minutes, Wilma looked interesting.

"Point being, it's not likely at any point during the season to see something that far north as anything more than a weak hurricane, yet alone in late October. "

--True.



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