(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Oct 26 2005 01:35 PM
Re: latest TWO

NHC has moved floater1 to 90L, and floater2 to 91L.

While there is clear rotation and good outflow, for 90L on the visual sat images I think some of what looks to be rotation on the east, flowing to the north, is actually convection being blown off by shear.

The shear analysis indicates more favorable outflow than yesterday, and that does appear to be true, but I'm not convinced that what i am seeing on sat is the shear pattern on the analysis. It seems like at the moment, there is a little more shear than identified...that 20kt shear actually looks to be a little more to the west than indicated (the shear analysis hasn't always told the correct story this year). But overall it's in an area of lower shear, relative to other areas of the Carib, and there is warm water in the forecasted direction of drift, and we have all seen how important outflow is this season. It is forecast likely to turn west instead of heading due N, and that's good because north of 15N there is still a lot of warm water left in the Caribbean, just north of the track taken by Wilma, all the way from Cayman to just SW of Cuba's western tip.

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center