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The larger view on sat (the western Carib and the EastPac, instead of the floater) shows how quickly 90L is getting organized, and also shows the bands on the Pacific side. Convection now firing off very close to the center for several hours now. There appears to be a very small area close to the center with no shear, but right outside of that area, at least 10kts shear. However the shear just south of the center convection, that is towards the south, is where some outflow has been established for awhile (also the outflow off to the east from the large band to the north of the center, has established itself much more than yesterday). With the current steering pattern this is only going to take a western turn right into Central America. But I'm wondering if it does, if it will redevelop on the Pacific side, where the shear is minimal and the water very warm. |