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I've been reading the AFDs from Mobile,AL to Key West, FL. Almost all of them mention the Caribbean system in some shape, form or fashion. A few with heavier wording than others. None, as of afternoon, took it to this level though. This is the last paragraph in this Afternoon's Extended Forecast Discussion from HPC in Maryland. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 149 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005 VALID 12Z SAT OCT 29 2005 - 12Z WED NOV 02 2005 (Valid from 7 AM Sat Oct 29 2005- 6AM Wed Nov 02 2005~danielw) CDT ends during the period. WRN CARIBBEAN... THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THIS SYS MOVES INTO CNTRL AMERICA OR NOT EARLY IN THE PD. THE GFS/NOGAPS MOVE IT INLAND... AS DOES THE TPC TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...OLDER GFS RUNS/ECMWF/UKMET/CAN/NOGAPS DRIFT IT NNWWD...AND HAVE CHANGED THE TRACK TWDS THIS THINKING SINCE IT IS ALREADY PASSING THE 81ST MERIDIAN...WHICH MOVES THE SYS ACRS NERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ON DAYS 4-6 /SUN-TUE AM/. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK/ DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC REGARDING THE SHORT TERM PROSPECTS OF THIS SYS. ROTH |