folks in the westpac would have to wonder what we're complaining about. they're getting a slacker season over there in terms of totals, probably because the atlantic is more aggressive in serving as a pathway for all that tropical moisture.
they ought to post-analyze the depression back to earlier today when the circulation became apparent, but gut feeling is that the best track will start at 00z/27 at the end of the season.
pretty straightforward forecast from me for it... slow wnw/nw movement, slow intensification until a core becomes established. track is going to be a hell of a complicated one. the system is close enough to central america to be held in check to a degree and result in an asymmetric wind field if it expands any. the impulse coming in from the west will likely start tugging it opposite the weak steering flow, so if the other one becomes established there's the chance it'll stall offshore or even drift back to the east.
the 'other one', 91L, has about the prospects that alpha did a week ago. it'll be in a stronger steering environment and will get handed off to the westerlies near the windward passage, if it develops. it's a day and a half from classification at least... but by the weekend it too could be menacing the western caribbean.
even when both of these are out of the way, the subtropical ridge north of puerto rico is likely to remain in place. subsequent waves will have to be watched, as models continue to show low pressures in the western caribbean even after the systems are lost.
HF 0150z27october