| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 27 2005 12:28 AM |
Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics
|
Quote:
TD26 is getting so organized so fast...its circulation, while sparse, is becoming very symmetric and large, covering Nicaragua and all of Panama. Just like this aft, you can get little peeks at the large LLC in the NE quad as it rotates. It doesn't look like that much up close, on the floater, and the center is still not well-organized, but if you look from the eastpac or carib sat images, you can see the large-scale organization (or it looks very nice on the navy web site as well). The nice little anticyclonic outflow that was right over the center around noonish, is now looking a little mangled, I don't know what that means, but with such a large area of cyclonic motion, the center is sure to develop.
...what do you think - I'm getting almost no detectable direction for movement at this hour...absolutely, dead stopped there. it is likely this will become a ts on thursday but i'm surprised at the rather lackluster intensity guidance considering what avails (those being decent to at time amazing looking u/a and boiling hot water (must consider that lat/lon hasn't been processed, as it is relatively rare for that specific location to be so)) anyway, i figure this thing will get to a critical momentum and then we'll see an explosive scenario at some point over the next 3 days - probably sooner rather than later...
...a person study of mine has shown that nhc is underestimates the intensity at upper extremes of systems 75% of the time - hush hush.