Gotta remember, damejune -- we haven't always had the GFS, NOGAPS, and other similar global models. Back not all that long ago, the global models (the ones we have now and older ones) performed horribly with tropical cyclones. Way back in the day, all we had to go off was the LFM and NGM models in terms of global/regional models and the simple track models such as the A98E, NHC90/91, LBAR, and BAM-series. These such models were state of the art not 15 years ago; nowadays, we've come along far enough with data, computing power, and with the physics/dynamics to have pretty good forecasts available to us out of the global models.

Beta's performing pretty much as expected and I think once it finally does develop a consistent eye -- like Wilma -- we'll see it go through a period of rapid intensifcation. Nothing like Wilma, mind you, but intensification to cat. 2 seems quite possible. There is pretty low heat content over the area where Beta's at right now, largely due to the lay of the land there, that should help to keep intensity in check. The further north it gets, however, the higher the heat content. If it stays off-shore longer -- perhaps getting into that area between the Yucatan and Honduras like Mitch did -- the intensity forecast would need to be upped and the landfall forecast delayed substantially. Not calling for another Mitch scenario, but I wouldn't be surprised if the storm did get into that notch of water up there...if only just so.