lbar? that's like using the daily show for keeping tabs on world events. entertainment purposes only.
i can loosely comprehend what tip's talking about, and don't see a problem with him tossing it out. some logic to the fact that the early models didn't see this thing coming north, and may not have a handle on the real steering... though i don't have much reason to doubt the rebridging of the ridge to the north will block beta and sling it across nic. a lot of folks on here could do with the jethro-ized version i'm sure, 'cause, well... that level of education in meteorology just isn't on every street corner.
not much to the analysis tonight. think the nhc track is fine, and won't need any fixing unless something else pops up on it's eastern flank (which isn't impossible, seen such things before). true that the 91L has pretty much evaporated, but there's still a perturbation in the atmosphere from it that can cause trouble when it starts bumping into the cyclonic windfield around beta.
wondering if it's just mental association that we're all wondering if beta advection will dominate the future of beta. next thing we'll be talking about beta decay and counting isotope ratios in the air over nicaragua. get ready with that geiger counter.
checked out a blurb from joe b earlier.. he's thinking both the first and second follow on waves can have down-the-road implications. we've already had three systems pop up in the caribbean on the edge of that ridge, wilma alpha beta, so i don't see why it can't keep turning them out as long as the pattern holds. after the amplification near the east coast during the first couple of days of november there's a call for the ridge to start edging westward. bastardi's commentary also noted the next block starting to show in europe, which could teleconnect to ridging in the eastern u.s. as we get into november. punchline is that with the wacky continuation of tropical activity this season, something else might have an opportunity to sneak in. gonna watch the coming pattern like a hawk, see if anything starts peeking.
so anyway, that's six storms in october. oddly the most active month of the season so far in terms of raw #s. july august september were five apiece. probably not shabby on the ntc activity either.. wilma was a powerful hurricane for days on end. think it'll sit second to emily in terms of days spent as a major. 882mb.. whatever.
HF 0358z28october