I can't believe I got up tihs early without the alarm.

Things looking a little different this morning, as far as future track. An alternative to the west turn into Nicaragua now seems like a reasonably possible outcome. However what I'm seeing is more like the situation that Wilma was in, and not a turn to the NE, but more like brushing Nicaragua/Honduras, and heading generally towards Cancun.

And what was really striking was looking at the wave train on the Western ATL and Carib sat. Still so much energy going into the Caribbean!

As to why Wilma's forecast increase in intensity didn't happen, it has been shear. It started to look like that last night, with the eye open to the northeastern side, and looking at the current vis sat loop this morning is very apparent her structure has been getting really sheared away from the ENE all night long.