Fri Oct 28 2005 01:43 PM
Re: Beta...

The big flare up of convection NE of Beta adds another fly in the ointment to the forecast. Since 91L is probably in there somewhere, there is a slight chance of something tropical developing out of that, but in any case it seems like the intense convection is causing enough outflow to disrupt Beta somewhat. The very cold convection with Beta right now is not a surprise, since systems undergoing some shear often produce colder (but asymmetric) convection. When a perfectly symmetrical system starts producing super-cold cloud tops (i.e. Wilma), then you know rapid intensification is occurring.

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