Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Oct 28 2005 03:32 PM
Re: Beta...

I believe it is becoming increasingly possible that the area of disturbed weather moving through the central Caribbean now may take the ball and run into the NW Caribbean and develop, whether as its own entity or merged system with TS Beta, and become a threat north of 20N. The trough moving across the lower Mississippi valley is digging quite far south into the western GOM and seems to be in a position to pull this disturbed area and TS Beta north/north-northwestward. Beta is beginning to move a bit further north at 4 knts, and is north of the model init positions. Don't know what may come of all this, and only the Canadien makes trouble for the CONUS, but it seems that a further north solution is quite possible. If its far enuf north, it could get into the Yucatan Channel as shown in the 12z NAM. Remember yesterday the models were too strong with the ridging in the SE US, and this allowed TS Beta to come further north. If the flow remains progressive (as shown by a number of models) then anything in the NW Caribbean early next week should find a seam in the ridge to make a northward run. On the other hand, if TS Beta makes the sharp left into Nicaragua, the disturbed area may develop on its own and move to the NW. Third, Beta may hold out long enuf before making the left turn to disrupt any development of the Central Caribbean disturbance, dissipate over Nic/Hon, and allow the remnant disturbance to dissipate in the westerlies. This may be last call (we Hope) for the 2005 season, as the longer range shows (GFS) less favorable conditions north of 20N, as the westerlies bring on Fall to the east. We'll watch and see, but the Caribbean still could be trouble for the CONUS next week. Hopefully this will shut the door on what has been historic and tragic hurricane season. Cheers!!

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