Fri Oct 28 2005 04:24 PM
Re: Beta...


Typhoon Tip - Laymens terms huh....do any of these systems have a chance of hitting Fla or the other areas of the gulf coast??

my own opinion is the threat is minimal at this time...
but...this is one of those times where i wish there was a crystal ball...
thing is, in the simplest terms, the situation "appears" to be getting more confusing this morning... i'll just number the considerations in no particular order of importance.
1) potentially another system near 75w; if that occurs in earnest, all bets on track guidance are off because obviously, it is so close in proximity to Beta that they'd likely interact in some form or another.
2) this looks very interesting on satellite but ....looks can be deceiving as we are forced to learn over and over again.
3) it is unclear how much ridge will develop near the upper gulf coast in lieu of troughing lifting out in eastern n/a over the next 72 hours. if that ridge is a stronger fixture, than you know it would be more of a block, which could impart a west component to the track. if it is a weaker after-glow of the trough, it would probably cause a little more than a stall to perhaps subtle westward drift.
4) "1)" + "2)" +"3)" = hign uncertainty.
5 there is an even large scale consideration in the synoptics of the hemisphere right now... (Are you familiar with indices??) basically, signals suggest a substantial patter change, one that should feature a stronger presents of the subtropical sw atlantic basin ridge out in time (beyond 72 hours); or at least one building w at low latitudes.. This could also exert an influence on track because it could nudge the whole playing field w in time, regardless of the smaller scale influencers surrounding cyclone interactions (should that take place) and ridge strengths..etc.

...in the end, with everything here to consider...(and I'm sure i've left some out)...the odds of any one location (even the size of a state in this case) cannot possibly be ascertained with any certainty at this time - which i'm sure you're ok with.. but, this is uniquely uncertain... any "cone" of probability is probably more like a gigantic semi-circle that is essential W - N - E, though not S.

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