scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Oct 28 2005 04:51 PM
Re: Wilma wilma

Reason the storm surge wasnt as great as Jeanne or Francais was due to it coming form the SW. Im sure you knew that though and were just stating the point. Also everyone that I talked to also said the same about the impact of Wilma over the 2 last year that went near PB and South Florida.
Beta shows great outflow this afternoon and is a strong TS but Im not sure its a hurricane yet as the center appears to be on the northern edge of the convention. Not exactly sure why this is,,,maybe due to the fact there are lower pressures its ENE with the disturbance over the central carribean making it want to tug that way. In general with Beta wanting to go NE towards the weakness and a ridge building over central amercia, its in a tug of war pretty much.
Anyways the models are coming more in line with a agreement (although I havnt seen the GFDL) on taking Beta NW over the next 2-3 days and making landfall near Nic-Hond boarder then bringing it into the NW carribean near 18N and 85W sometime sunday night. A strong trough is forecasted to build (simular to last weekend) over the central US and into the gulf...Anything there should push it towards Florida or across Cuba towards the bahamas during the middle of next week....The CMC model is usually off like the LBAR on the globals but does have consistancy. The Ukmet ( which did the best with Wilma) also has been consistant on a track NW then N towards the gulf and now even the GFS shows (after weakning on landfall) emerging into the NW Carribean then NE towards SW Florida.
First off we would want to see more consistancy and consolidation into the models for the next couple runs and also the exact near term movement will have an affect on strength and direction inthe long run.
With this trough digging into the SE gulf right now.. I dont see much of a west turn into the Nicaragua coastline but I do think it will come very close or if not make landfall near the SE tip of Honduras. Then a movement (quicker then Wilma) N towards the Gulf or Cuba during Monday.
Some might say about Wilma turning up the NW carribean waters and the trough this week cooling off the Gulf.....yes it did have some affect but it wont weaken the system anymore then it is......I do suspect shear to develop over the Gulf with the trough but then again it will be moving (if at all there ) with the flow.
Overall anything could happen in the near term with Beta so we dont know whats going to happen more then we did 12 hrs ago.....Next 24-48hrs will determine if this is a threat to Florida.



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