i'm going to keep hedging on beta moving onshore nicaragua. i think it'll do it in spite of whatever else may be going on around it... too much model consensus showing the westward turn, and there already seems to be a bend nw in the track today. should move onshore further north, closer to the honduras/nicaragua border, and move west in such a fashion as to remain onshore and weaken. may get gummed up and stop just a little inland as there's a chance that low pressure will try to form further east and northeast with the lesser shear and wave energy being banked into the eastern edge of beta's envelope. like some have said and even a disco or two mentioned, some degree of binary interaction is likely, whether the other feature develops or not. beta has had a hard time strengthening so far, so this may have already happened to a degree (91L to the east perhaps kinking the trades up and weakening convergence around beta). the models are showing less of an energy hand-off to the mid latitudes now, so whatever ends up in the nw caribbean, whether a vestige of 91L or beta or perhaps something else entirely... may get stuck up there for a day or three.. waiting on another amplification in the westerlies to pick it up. i'd say that the best bet right now is that beta moves inland and that the feature up there doesn't quite have what it takes to develop, but there's still a chance of another feature forming, or beta getting far enough north to lodge in the nw caribbean.
the wave near 45w needs to be watched for days down the road. it's going to be moving into the caribbean in a couple of days under favorable upper-air conditions, and already has a decent gyre and occasional spotty convection. the globals track it though none are developing it, but i'd suspect that in the first few days of november we'll have at least an invest out of this one as well.
i'm not going to sound the trumpet for the season ending any time soon. we're in SOI positive which favors stronger global trades and an enhanced subtropical ridge. with the blocking setting up in eastern europe that the accuweather guys were talking about yesterday, it figures that ridging near the east coast will start setting up shop in the coming week or two. such a thing tacked onto the existing subtropical ridge which has been keeping the caribbean active would perhaps open the gate for any caribbean mischief to come harass the u.s. (in reduced late-season form, of course). florida needs to keep an eyeball on the caribbean for the next week or two, at least.
HF 1935z28october