well...it's like the battle of the under dogs and the power hogs in the 18z run...
the typically poorer performing NAM, CLIPER, and LBAR now to varying degrees (errr, impetus on "varying") keep beta off-shore of the nic/hon nexus... meanwhile, all other models, which range from typically somewhat better to stellar by comparison, they're all happily clustered around the westward track... 2002 patriots?

synoptic reasoning isn't changing save details in any alarming way so in the end, it will probably (for me) come down to the amplitude of ridging n - what's new - and less on those westward track philosophies, which seem to be exercising the might of beta drift perhaps too myopically. what other reason is there for them having failed to turn w now for i think it is 18 hours worth of runs - check that, but i'm fairly certain they are belated and one must wonder why. ...just looking for clues to answer, and the differences seem to be related to model design.

i think it safe to say that the trough currently scraping by to the n is guilty of inducing the n tug in the last 24 hours, which it is important to note, was not seen by the w tended model camp of runs. that should mean something significant if your in the business of correcting..et al. basically, we can conclude with a certain air of confidence that if there is impetus to allow it out of the deep latitudes, it's gonna take it... that sort of charges the w moving camp of runs with the responsibility of being damn sure that whatever will induce that w motion, is enough. probably will be, ultimately, but they've failed in the responsibility for 3 time intervals now.. but as a cop-out compromise, somewhere between the CMC and the BAM runs will probably suffice.

that's bad bad bad... the thing is...such a trajectory is a floody one... not enough to make it a non-entity so heavy rain/slow mover plagues. just a possibility.

in the end, (for me) beta has about 18 more hours before whatever ridge expression nne east begins to re-assert an influence...until that time, i don't see really how this can establish the long awaited w motion.. as noted in an earlier discussion, there is a correlation between the size of a circulation and the amount of beta effect actually effects the motion of a tc. that being said...beta's been a small circulation to this point; it just may be that those other runs, which do carry beta parameterizations as a component (particularly talking about the BAM cluster) are biased in that regard and thus too apt to a w motion...

don't worry you floridians! i am by no means using this to imply that florida or the se u.s. will or won't be impacted.. i'm simply looking at the w motion guidance and asking 'why'... i could blindly follow the model solutions but i don't see the steering depth for borderline TS/cat 1 hurricane, really in a hurry to do that w motion until after 18 hours, and even then it is not really a very strong implication...