it isn't moving much at all, but beta's northward momentum seems to have slackened off now. seems the weight of almost all the globals is more than that bullish northward motion beta insisted on taking from its inception. really hard to know if the intensity numbers provider are close to right, since the storm is still small and the eye is concealed by thunderstorm blow-off. recon will better fix that info this afternoon, but the storm could be anywhere inside the strength range suggested by the dvorak scores.
91L is not well defined anymore. the energy from it should propagate into the nw caribbean on the north side of then-inland beta, and get gummed up for a day or two. not very likely it can do something in that time, but a small chance will exist, as some of the models seem to see a weak low signature up there.
none of the models see more than a wave out of the feature near 50w, but it seems to have taken the forefront in terms of development candidates. it's been holding down persistent scattered convection on it's forward edge, and has a weak surface low at about 13n. upper low ahead of it should keep it under modest southerly shear, but it is moving into a high sst region and the shear profile may slowly relax over the next couple of days. pattern is modestly supportive of further development in the caribbean--with active waves like these the chances of such an event are high enough to merit attention.
HF 1605z29october