They will post it at the 1am.

They conservatively left it just short of Cat 3...I'm a little surprised looking at the eye. They surely would have seen the 0515Z before posting the advis. But even with landfall in just a couple hours, and only the inner core intact, NHC still indicated it was possible to get to Cat 3 before landfall, which also surprises me a little, as I think time has just about run out.

So HF your estimate was right on with the NHC's.

0545Z eye continued to clear out, the SW movement will leave it over water just a tad longer...I think it likely the 5am will mention Cat 3 before landfall.