there hasn't been great model consistency over the past few days as to what's going to happen in the caribbean next week, but they're getting a bit more persistent. nogaps and gfs have a low pressure forming between panama/colombia and jamaica with a weaker low near the ne caribbean (nogaps takes it ne, then cuts it off like a hybrid storm), ukmet has a big broad low in the central caribbean.. and the canadian has a pokey little hybrid to the east sort of like nogaps.
the 200mb winds on gfs are what's got my interest more piqued than before. they are showing upper ridging in the western caribbean as next week wears on. if that is the case and there's the kind of convergence the models are indicating at the surface, something will be up. the feature to the east looks less likely, as it is shown getting carried up into the kind of shear that would shred it. noteworthy that the gfs has no subtropical ridge above it, just a westerly 500mb jet. the prog it gives is a meandering low pressure/tropical cyclone that is still in the caribbean around thanksgiving. i'm thinking that if a real system existed, it would track something more along the lines of lenny in 1999 or odette in 2003.
checked some joe b comments, and he thinks something is up. the disturbed weather around panama has been inching a little poleward, so keep an eye on the area during the weekend.
later all.
HF 1820z10november