Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Nov 14 2005 11:19 AM
Re: TD 27 Active in the SE Caribbean--here we go

Quote:

Gamma soon.....From the NHC

IT APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A CURVED BAND THAT COULD SOON WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CYCLONE APPEARS CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...

Now I believe that is overly optimistic. The shear looks to be above 20kts; I don't see the circ wrapping around even if is clearly banding.

However I do like the way this was put later in the discussion, and agree with this assessment:

IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SNEAK TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND BECOMES SITUATED BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE... IT COULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN.

I think that is definitely the key...providing that favorable outflow.

And this as well:

OCEAN TEMPERATURES DO NOT PROVIDE ANY LIMITING FACTOR... SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HINGES LARGELY ON HOW SHEAR IMPACTS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE ENDS UP DIRECTLY BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE.

I am not so sold on recurvature later in the week.

* * * * * * * *

Also...anyone looked at the floaters? What's so interesting about NJ?


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