It is way too early to get precise about the future of this system - or to even be certain that it has a future. The latest advisory from NHC keeps the cyclone on a general westerly track for the next 5 days and that appears to be a reasonable forecast. The average forward speed is projected at less than 200 miles per day - a very slow moving system. It would take at least a week (probably longer) before any impacts might be felt in South Florida - and there is a much greater probability that it will have no impact on the state.

The chances for impact on S. Florida in the next week or so is minimal. To put things in proper perspective, there is also a minimal probability that the system will never reach tropical storm strength and a minimal (although greater) probability that the system will encounter shear and fall apart. Remember , the average hurricane season sees a November storm every other year - so this is nothing all that unusual.

TD 27 is likely to become a tropical storm in the next day or two, and it is likely to move westward for the remainder of this week. It could eventually become a hurricane, but even the folks in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan have plenty of time to monitor this developing system. The only likely candidate for something that could turn the system more northward is a cold front that hasn't even reached the Pacific Northwest yet - and thats why any northward turn only has a minimal probability at the moment.

The models are still somewhat diverse on their various solutions, but thats not unusual with developing systems - and it is late into the season so not quite as much climo to work with. The GFS usually doesn't do too well with weak systems. The BAMM is okay with systems that remain in the tropics, and the UKMET has good years and bad years (this year it has had some wide variations from storm to storm in terms of accuracy).

This sure has been a remarkable (and long) season. If this should become 'Gamma', save some images for your grandchildren - it may be quite some time before we see a 'Gamma' again.
ED