td 27-- with the nhc on it's general evolution. once it gets going, like they've implied... it should intensify more than the official says. that track i put up last night of that 1932 storm... is sort of what i have in mind. if it doesn't get onshore in central america first, that is. i don't favor it being a very strong hurricane as it comes up, either... shear should start to light into it at fairly low latitude. so here's my general solution:
tue, wed, thu... head west, reach t.s. strength tue, hurricane wed, possibly strong hurricane thursday.
fri, sat... sit around, drift north near the honduras/nicaragua border.
sun, mon... start moving ne, weaken, cuba/bahamas, take off out into the atlantic.
something along those lines ought to commence. i really don't think the synoptic pattern will favor it getting to florida. none of the models are showing the kind of ridging in the atlantic or amplification needed to draw it up.
now, as for the other stuff: invest 93L got dropped as quick as it was assigned, but tonight that profile is pretty much back with a broad low centered roughly north of eastern panama. with 27 coming in from the east it should make development here impossible, but were 27 to be taken by shear i'd be very wary of this area as a potential system. if something does evolve it should get scarfed down by 27 shortly. if 27 gets hung up for whatever reason to the east, watch for it to assert itself more.
models are showing some interesting things in the extended period. while 27/gamma is stirring up in the caribbean, a piece of energy should cut off upstream along the old frontal boundary draped east of bermuda. this energy ought to bank southwest, and some models are showing enough of an upper signature on this deep layer feature for a very mild transition risk. with the strong jet north of the caribbean this is unlikely, unless the upper air flow becomes very much more confused than models are showing.
in about twelve days the gfs has been showing the past few runs a huge deep layer low in the east atlantic subtropics. by huge i mean it has a diameter on the order of 1200-1500 miles. they aren't showing much of a frontal structure, so if this feature persists in future runs, keep in mind that a subtropical system may be in the offing later in the month well out to sea.
okay, 'nuff of that.
HF 0449z15november