How do you get a cat 2 or 3 over Cuba?

I think he is referencing the gfdl which has been very ‘bullish’, as they say. Physically speaking, the water is plenty warm, and once the ridge builds over it really has no reason not to deepen. Of course, the system looks really crappy right now, so we shall see. I really hope they don't issue the last advisory, only to have to re-issue it or make up a new cyclone alltogether.

Among other scenarios, climatology favors a sharply recurving storm passing through cuba (although above mentioned model tangles it up into central america). Granted “near Cuba” is a bit of a shoe in, as the Northwest Caribbean isn’t that large to begin with. I like Hank’s 1932 analogue, although it would be neat to see it get into the gulf.