this was a tough forecast and so far i haven't made good of it. 93L is moving onshore. no recon was sent today so we'll probably never know if it was a tropical cyclone. on the other hand there is a chance that the vorticity from former td 27 that looped into this thing will get to the north shore of honduras, and that low pressure will recenter itself further north over water. some model suggestion of this, and their does seem to be an elongated axis to the overall turning... but just as good a chance that the whole mess will now camp over nicaragua/honduras just inland and rain itself out. some of this energy may be entrained into the coastal storm forecast to bomb off the east coast next week.
the first hybrid system is kicking, diving sw to the se of bermuda. it's a formative deep layer system, so there will likely be a low-shear window once it stops moving and does the usual cycloidal hook these things tend to have in a couple of days. during that time, whatever is turning at the surface, with the sharp temperature gradient supporting convection, may have time to spin up in the small window these things have for development near the ne caribbean. the diffluence upstream to the east will also likely favor cyclogenesis, though anything that could organize out there would move north and probably not develop much.
with the strong nao negative pattern forecast over the atlantic later this month, the globals continue to have another strong deep layer low south of the azores in the extended period. that'll need to be watched.
HF 0543z17november