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td 27 puffed out, but it's remnant area is stuck on the north coast of honduras right now... while the 93L low is chugging slowly nw into honduras towards the nw caribbean. deep convection is firing in the area... so all it should take is the low pressure zone to move offshore and get the feedback started. as is, the system is essentially a depression with a very elongated center. it'll be interesting if recon finds t.s. winds tomorrow if the center were to still be onshore. that's not much different than tammy was a month and a half ago, after moving inland into georgia but still having t.s. winds over the open water. guess we'll see how logically consistent the nhc wants to be. there's that hybrid wannabe system up near 25/50... migrating more or less sw towards the caribbean. not much at the surface with it... maybe an elongated surface trough with some maxes on it. it's got a low-end chance of hybridizing over the next few days. the big upper low that was being shown in the eastern atlantic during week 2 is less consistent on model runs now, but there are still features out there of interest. with the deep trough over the east, there should be enough amplitude in the pattern to favor anomalous ridging and lower than normal shear in places. strictly hybrid potential, though... ssts out there are subpar for a typical tropical cyclone. best chances at another system are with the mess around honduras, which is sitting on the fence for now. HF 0517z18november |