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Although it is a moot point since we now have 'Gamma', I believe that Clark's analysis is accurate. TD 27 became an open wave and was nudged west southwest by the strength of the Atlantic ridge over Florida a couple of days ago. The open wave then moved west just north of the north shore of South America. The secondary low - actually an upper level low - moved onshore as you described and weakened considerably. TD 27 closed off again and regenerated to the northeast of the weak secondary low - and quickly strengthened to tropical storm strength. The Navy (NRL) continued to monitor the remnants of 27 and reclassified it as a TD a few hours before NHC upgraded the system to a TS. Post analysis of satellite data supports this genesis. To clarify another point of interesting discussion in this thread, a RECON Vortex Message is not required in order to upgrade a system to TS status. Upgrades are often made based on satellite wind data measurements - frequent examples are Cape Verde systems in the far eastern Atlantic that are upgraded to TD or TS status without the benefit of any RECON measurements. Cheers, ED |