finally. it's already at tropical phase and probably has been for at least 12-18hr based on satellite analyses. the subtropical phase will probably be analyzed back to midday yesterday... when it's frontal association started to break down.
the forecast track is somewhat similar to peter of 2003, translated north. some of the global models are sweeping it up into or converting it into a powerful, extratropical storm west of the azores in a few days. in the meanwhile it may acquire hurricane strength during the next 24hr given the environmental conditions and vertically compact, shear-resistant structure.
some of the globals are handing in the medium range are banking this system west, such as the euro, nogaps, and ukmet. with the blocking pattern continuing in the north atlantic this system may get slung around out there for the coming week... even if it doesn't remain a tropical entity.
a lot of the models are showing a more favorable shear pattern over the caribbean at the end of the week. if that mess near panama remains coherent we may be having to eye things down there by next week.
HF 2057z23november