the surface obs at least confirm the satellite estimates from earlier... suggest they were low if anything. this kind of quality control check suggests that the intensity estimates have been low all along, and that delta was quite possibly a hurricane for a while this morning and back on friday. can't think any precedent for a post-analysis upgrade of one of these late season storms like that, so it isn't likely and all that would do is pad the season numbers a little more anyway. the storm's profile is already deteriorating and it will likely be extratropical within the next three advisory cycles.
the broad low long forecast by models is coalescing west of the speeding, transitioning delta. some of the model profiles are also showing warming relative to the environment. however, overall the feature appears quite broad on the globals. it also appears that it will reside at a slightly higher latitude than delta hovered in during its meandering stage. it will have most of the week to wander about, but i don't think it will ever get a strong, focused, convective center or make much headway in transition. global models aren't showing much else in the realm of tropical activity--early december should look typically quiet. things are unlikely to get interesting during the winter unless some very strong blocking begins to come into play.
by the way, if you haven't posted a 2006 best guess and are interested, head over to the forum and put 'er up.
HF 2334z27november