Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Nov 27 2005 09:23 PM
Re: Bye, bye, Delta!

I dunno HF -- the cyclone phase analyses on that system west of Delta are pretty similar to what we saw forecast for Delta a week or so ago, with a shallow warm core (in layman's terms, a warm core at the low levels) gradually growing upward through time, reaching deep/symmetric warm core status for a brief period of time before the upper level warm core weakens. Delta actually followed much the same pattern as is forecast for this low pressure system and, according to the model representations, hasn't had a true tropical signature for a few days now. I'd say the chances of that system becoming at least a subtropical storm are about 50/50 -- depends on how the satellite signature evolves and whether or not they feel like padding the numbers with another system.

Nevertheless, it's probably the last system we'd have to look at for some period of time -- we're transitioning into nor'easter time of year (for those interested, we'll be transitioning our MM5 output into nor'easter/winter weather mode with the appropriate products for winter forecasting once tropical season finally ends). Have a good one, everyone...



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