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structurally i'd have to say epsilon is likely a hurricane. it doesn't have the extensive deep convection of a low latitude tropical system, but there's a slightly better internal structure... clear circular banding and a fairly large eye... than delta ever had while it was looking good late last week. it doesn't have very good t-ratings, but those tend to underdo sheared or hybrid systems, and this is definitely one of the latter. got a hunch that delta will be post analyzed as a hurricane. epsilon has a good shot at being operationally upgraded into one during the next couple of forecast cycles, i'd also say. the season ends at 7pm eastern, if you go by GMT. epsilon thinks it's still on, apparently. HF 2324z30november well, near 1 pm on Thursday and it hasn't made it. but then, a few days ago i thought the models had to be overdoing it and that it wouldn't form. been on both sides of wrong on this one... -HF |