Clark
(Meteorologist)
Wed Dec 28 2005 08:24 PM
Re: Merry Christmas No Hurricanes!

Margie brought the E. Atlantic feature to my attention earlier today. In short, those sorts of features are pretty common for this time of year in the central/eastern subtropical Atlantic. It's never really going to get the chance to detach from the upper-level pattern, which is pretty progressive across the US and into the central Atlantic, and shear values are quite high and not likely to get any or much lower. None of the models are calling for any surface development, either, and my feeling is that if anything were to get going it would be highly baroclinic (nontropical) in nature and probably move around the east side of the feature and then get caught up in the strong westerlies. Never say never, but I don't give that much of a shot at all...1% maybe, if that?

Out in the eastern Pacific, strong midlatitude weather systems continually tap what we call "the Pineapple Express," or the subtropical jet stream, oftentimes enhancing convection in the vicinity of the ITCZ where it reaches that far south. That's what's going on now. Convection may periodically flare, but I don't think that's any threat for any development -- again, too much shear, and the waters are quite chilly (relatively speaking as compared to summer) out that way right now.

Just my two cents.



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