To me, I didn't think it could make the quantum leap (in organization) that it did overnight and sustain it long enough to be classified as a bonafide threat -- yet alone a tropical storm. There's another trough to its west heading toward the vicinity of Zeta, though it looks like the bulk of it may be trying to lift north around the storm. I'll be interested to see what the NHC package has to say; my best guess is about 1-2 days of longevity with a slow motion to the NW at first replaced by a track toward the northeast thereafter.

Shear values were initially pretty bad for development -- 60 or 65kt from 850-200mb -- but as the upper-low "built down" to the surface (or at least helped spawn, in some manner, a surface feature) and started to devleop there, the vertical shear values dropped. They now sit in the vicinity of 20kt, which is much more favorable (and not uncommon). The development of Zeta is similar to the other three out there, with some subtle differences -- perhaps with a taste of the "forming on the NE side in the diffluent region of an upper-low" scenario that we saw with some of the western Atlantic's storms.

Nevertheless, I'm glad I didn't say zero percent chance a few days ago -- turns out to be 100%. I love tropical activity that affects no one as much as the next person, but this is just crazy! I certainly hope that every deep-latitude trough in the eastern Atlantic doesn't continue to spawn these features as we move into 2006; they are pretty common features for winter and spring out that way. I'm still a bit surprised by this development, so I'll try to spend some time figuring out why we've got it later today.