Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jan 05 2006 06:23 PM
Re: [Jaws music]

We can explain to a fair degree of accuracy and certainty why Zeta formed and how it is maintaining itself. It's in the predictability of these events -- both during and outside the actual hurricane season -- where we are still lacking. Progress is being made and getting these storms out of season is helping us in that effort.

As for extending the season, a "season" is designed to encompass the vast majority of all storms. Through our records, we have seen about 99.9% of all storms occur within the season, +/- 1 week on the ends. These systems are the exception to the rule and not storms that should be considered to extend the rule, in my opinion. While it's likely that, through history, we have seen more storms than are accounted for during these off-season months, the same holds true for during the season and the overall percentages are likely to be the same. And, to me, quite frankly, I don't think it's worth changing the season or naming protocol just for 1 out of every 1000 or so storms. Furthermore, having a list span two years would just create unnecessary confusion; there's already a little for Zeta's lifespan spanning two years. When dealing with these things, it's best to keep them as simple as possible.



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