Unregistered User
Fri Jan 06 2006 11:28 AM
Re: [Jaws music]

Hmm, what is that surge coming up from the equator east of SA....gained 5 degrees since yesterday, ITCZ spinoff? In January....

Anyway, looks like ZETA has about had it. Wonder if they will go back and undo the one advisory the other day where it was downgraded to TD...

As to the seasons....I recall back in the sixties the season used to run from something like the first Monday in June (or was it June 5?) to November 15. At some point it was extended to be June 1 to November 30, as it is now. There were a few years in the 60s when we had a number of storms that formed in early June, but I don't really remember any in late Nov after the 15th particularly, in those days. (There were a few, I am sure.).

Now...why did they do that? Just to round off the calendar I suppose, and because it was recognized that storms sometimes did occur early and late. Was it understood that there might be a storm now and then out of the 'season'? Yes..like the two storms (and others) that HF mentioned...I believe I read here once that there was even a CAT 3 in May, one year!

Having said all that...I think we are in a new (to us) paradigm.....and I can see, if the idea is for the season to encompass the time when it can be reasonably expected, say, one in ten years, there may be at least one storm. Therefore, May 15 to Dec 15 would make sense to me...anything outside of that would clearly be a rogue....of course, if you look at THIS year, and the storms after Dec 15......

Another thought, after this year, if we get a repeat of the late November/December formation hotspot in the EASTLANT, the TWC and others may need to revise their maps to show just that....a common or usual formation area for November and Dec is NW of the Cape Verde Islands! I can't wait to see the research results showing why that area spawned (so far) 4 storms this year ! Two of whoch affected Europe and Africa.

It really boggles my mind, as an old time hurricane hound, to write these words....this is truly an amazing, unique and "once in a lifetime" (maybe) historical and history bending time in the tropical cyclone 'business'!


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