Administrator

(Admin)

Sun Sep 30 2007 02:31 PM

Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

October 1st Update 6:40PM EDT
Karen and Melissa are no more, but we are watching a disturbance off the coast of Florida that may develop into something subtropical over the next day or so. The winds are more from the pressure gradient, but the rains around the area have some influence from this disturbance.

The disturbance is now being tracked as 90L, you can let us know conditions in your area here.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Karen has dissipated, ripped apart by shear, but is holding the remnant low still. If shear abates it is possible for the system to regenerate, we'll be continuing to watch it since storms that weaken this much tend to drift more westward. Chances are still greatest that it will turn out to sea before it approaches land, however.

An area east of Florida is worth watching over the next few days for development, nothing entirely to imminent now, however. You can find more discussion on this, here.

The pressure gradient between these systems and the northwest is what is creating the winds along parts of Florida, not this system itself.

Melissa is holding is a minimal tropical storm, and is going to be affected by shear much like Ingrid and Karen were, it should not affect land.

Southeast Composite Radar
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne, FL}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|92L|92|16|2007|2|92L (Bahamas Wave)}}
{{StormLinks|91L|91|17|2007|3|91L}}
{{StormLinks|Melissa|14|14|2007|4|Melissa Remnants}}
{{StormLinks|90L|90|15|2007|1|90 (Gulf Wave)}}

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 30 2007 03:39 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

well looks like we got a mid-upper level low developing of the SE of Florida again... pressures are dropping a tad in that area at the surface too... The surface flow is very strong out of the NE right now.... Looking at the overall models... almost looks like we will have another system to track in coming days... either from the east coast of Florida down to the western caribbean.

vis sat

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Sep 30 2007 05:17 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

Has karens center dissipate yet or is it still swirling.
is the shear starting to lessin.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Sun Sep 30 2007 05:51 PM

Recon Schedule

NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT SUN 30 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-128

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 25.0N 84.0W AT 02/1800Z

edit: 02/1800Z is Noon EDT on Tuesday

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 30 2007 05:58 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

The TWC suggested that a storm could be forming to the SW of Karen:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Sep 30 2007 07:38 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

It looks like on Vis satellite that there might be a broad low level low developing. Surface observations seem to confirm it also.

East or Southeast Bahamas, buoy 41046: SSE Winds 11.7-13.6 knots

Northeast Bahamas, buoy 41047: E Winds 21.4-25.3 knots.

Settlement point GBI NW Bahamas: NNE Winds 24-27 knots.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Oct 01 2007 01:30 AM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

As Mike mentioned correctly earlier today, some pressure falls have been noted in the Bahamas. In addition, a swirl was noticable on vis. sat. today, and duly noted per Miami National Weather Service Forecast Discussion from earlier today -

".....Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

000
FXUS62 KMFL 301845
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...A LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS ANALYZED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA IS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL
FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY ...."

From where I sit, this small surface vorticity along with the strong high pressure ridge may well continue to enchance S. Florida's wet and windy weather, but if in fact there is to be any tropical cyclone development to occur from within this "tropical constipation", than I believe it will yet come from this same area of disturbed weather east of Florida. In coming days I still anticipate some development perhaps to retrograde westward towards South or Central Florida, but not from this weak transient low level swirl. Will be interesting to see if pressures continue to fall east of Fla.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Oct 01 2007 03:45 AM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

I don't know but I'm here in Miami with the wind blowing, intermittent squalls... no constant winds but gusty squalls and yet I can't help but look at remnants of Karen more than what is closer to home.

Warm and humid here when it rains yet cool also. Funky feel to the air.

yet... Karen looks interesting, or what was known as Karen. Since NRL still refers to it as Karen I feel safe calling it that too..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

Looks to me like the area to the SE of the old center is not convection blown off of any old center to the nw of it and yes its firing up because of the ull but i don't think the ull is that big right now as the one off of Florida is bigger..

very complex picture between what would or should be a dead karen lighting up the night's sats and the area near florida which is also stuck between a rock and a hard place shear wise even though some hybrid may develop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

interesting still

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Oct 01 2007 12:04 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

Quote:

Warm and humid here when it rains yet cool also. Funky feel to the air.

And funny, over here in w Charlotte county, on the "other side" of the frontal line, it's felt like "fall" since yesterday. Comfortably cool, feeling very mild and dry (don't know what actual humidity is, but it FEELS lower than usual). I told my dh yesterday it's like FALL here in FL. *LOL*

Very gusty though Saturday and Sunday. Not so much today (yet) but I'm sure as the sun comes up and temps go up they will pick up.Like spring cold front system gusty winds.

This is WEIRD weather we're having lately. Really weird.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Oct 01 2007 05:05 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

Miami NWS...
..."STILL WATCHING A WEAK LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A LOW OR AN INVERTED TROUGH. GFS40 HAS THIS LOW OVER
THE FLORIDA BAY BY 12Z TUESDAY AND THEN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENGE
SHUTS DOWN WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS
DRASTICALLY REDUCED."

11:30 TWD Monday

..."AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRODUCING SQUALLY
WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT...
PERHAPS OF A SUBTROPICAL NATURE...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. "

CMC is still going a little strong with this area....and most globals are still trying to develope something a in the SE GOM in the coming days from this area.... Something to watch... and wait and see.... the trough looks to be backing up some now... conditions are looking to becoming more favorable...

(Weather Master)

Mon Oct 01 2007 07:01 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

looks like NRL just added 90L, likely on the bahamas system (no satellite images yet)

(Weather Master)

Mon Oct 01 2007 07:11 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

Sat image up now...it is the Bahamas system.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Oct 01 2007 07:24 PM

Re: Area East of Florida

Until a moderator has had a chance to update the various links for this invest here is a link to the SFWMD model plots.

SFWMD

SEE Storm 90

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Oct 01 2007 09:47 PM

Re: Area East of Florida

just threw a image together... found the BROAD low... see attachment... this is just my obs... looks to me its drifting to the WSW....

I put the broad center inside that red box i made on the map.... and the white arrow of what i think may be the current heading, for the next couple of hours... Upper level winds are not favorable for development right now, but should change in next 12-36 hrs

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Oct 01 2007 10:13 PM

Re: Area East of Florida

Nice work on islolating what may very well be a developing T.D. Funny thing, though, throughout all this talk and finally a 90L tag on this appearant weak low right off the S. Fla. southeast coast, I have been and still remain more intrigued by the base of the mid level trough farther east around 73W and approx. 23N. This has been consistantly flaring up each day, and given the greater room to evolve, have greater concern if it breaks off, while remaining under the same ridge, and then itself moving westward.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Oct 01 2007 10:28 PM

Re: Area East of Florida

lol... just threw that together... kinda watching it, this afternoon.... I am actully too looking to the east more on the base of the trough...

Looks like to me that a favorable pattern may be shaping up in the GOM in a few days.... which gives me some concern... Upper Levels i think are going to be key, with the ridge off to the North and east... Tell you one thing, love the NE winds we been getting for a few days... Another great beach day, considering we have had a few confirmed reports of RED TIDE along the Panahandle Beachs... which tells me we still got some good warm waters to the south of PC.

weather_wise911

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Oct 01 2007 10:56 PM

Re: Area East of Florida

Actually, based on the latest QuickSCATT pass... seems the broad low is a little farther east. Near this location. (see attachment)

WW-911

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Oct 01 2007 11:23 PM

Re: Area East of Florida

hmm.... i see what your talking about,but looks like the ran latest NHC/Tropical Guidance suite on what i was pointing out.... its going to be hard to locate an actually one.... until it really developes... That weak Upper low in the SE GOM is pulling away i think... to the SW

90L first run: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif

weather_wise911

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Oct 01 2007 11:51 PM

Re: Area East of Florida

You're absolutely correct... until we get a well-defined circulation, it's going to be a coin toss. But I still feel like the primary low will develop (or rather IS developing) to the east of where the models have been initialized.

WW-911

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 02 2007 02:08 AM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

This is an interesting invest.. it's a HUGE area of disturbed weather and there are also 2 areas that need to be watched for invests. This is probably a sign that the weather up here will be deteriating due to the large expanse of moisture looping around the low. I somehow think this will be stronger then TD10. If you look at my attachment, I circled the 2 areas.. This whole thing looks like a ragged low pressure system with a warm and cold front.. very interesting

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 02 2007 04:02 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

I find it rather interesting that the first model that dropped Karen is now ressurecting her back in a few days and heading her to the GOM from the Bahamas. The GFS is one interesting model.. as for 90L, could already be at least a Subtropical Depression, it's been pretty bad over here, but not as bad as our Unnamed Subtropical Storm we had 2 weeks ago. Shear isn't as bad as it was earlier in the GOM, there is a huge warm spot that could allow intensification to be rapid if it becomes tropical by then. All bets are off on what this storm will do, Hugh told me "2007 is the year of deja vu", he is absolutely right!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Oct 02 2007 04:14 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
929 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 06 2007 - 12Z TUE OCT 09 2007

EARLY PRELIM DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE IN A REPETITIVE MODE..WITH THE FUTURE
LOOKING A LOT LIKE THE PAST.

THE MEAN RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ERN CONUS/WRN ATLC SHOULD DIRECT ANY
SYSTEMS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A FIRST WEAK SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW SHOULD
REACH OR APPROACH THE WRN GULF COAST BY EARLY DAY 3/FRI AND
DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A TRACK WITHIN THE RIGHT HALF OF
GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN VERIFICATION OF RECENT WEAK
SYSTEMS OVER THE GULF/WRN ATLC. MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REACHING THE GULF BY THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1157 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

POSSIBLE LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
THE NAM DEVELOPS A FEATURE HERE WHICH WAS NOT SEEN ON ITS RUNS
FROM YESTERDAY. IT WAS FIRST NOTED ON THE NAM RUN FROM 00Z...FROM
WHICH THE CURRENT RUN HAS TRENDED SOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE DURING ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS
OF RUNS.

POSSIBLE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY MORNING...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue Oct 02 2007 06:23 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

I'm having trouble locating 90L here around lunch time on Tuesday. Almost seems like last time, the surface low is moving around again. Looks like to me, it may be trying to form near the convection in the EGOM? I don't see a real good indication where 90L would be at this time, except that its REALLY BROAD.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Oct 02 2007 07:13 PM

Re: Karen Dissipates, Watching Area East of Florida

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
107 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID OCT 02/1200 UTC THRU OCT 06/0000 UTC

DEEP/POSSIBLY SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...
THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON ITS VARIOUS SOLUTIONS OVER ITS
PAST 2 TO 3 DAYS OF RUNS...WITH A LONG TERM TREND TOWARDS
WEAKENING SEEN ON THE NAM AND CANADIAN. ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXIST ALONG THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
US GULF COAST TO EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IDEA FITS THE GFS SOLUTION BEST
WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 09Z COMBINED SREF MEMBER
SPREAD...WHICH AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE NOON MEDIUM RANGE
CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC. ITS CENTRAL PRESSURE SHOULD BE
CLOSEST...IF NOT DEEPER THAN...THE NAM CONSIDERING ITS CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE AND ITS EXPECTED CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SEE THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM TPC CONCERNING THIS FEATURE

Let just do this one more time......

POSSIBLE LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...
POSSIBLE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FRIDAY MORNING...
THE GFS/CANADIAN ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A NEW LOW...SIMILAR IN
ORIGIN TO THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT
THIS TIME AS WELL AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 IN LATE SEPTEMBER...IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM HAS A
WEAK SYSTEM THAT MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST...BUT IS TRENDING SLOWER...AND A SECOND CYCLONE FORMING IN
THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ECMWF HAS NO SYSTEM WHATSOEVER.
SINCE THE MERIDIONAL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN BY FRIDAY...A CLOSED CYCLONE
UNDER ITS BASE IS EXPECTED. ADDING TO THE PROBABILITY OF THIS
CYCLONES FORMATION ARE TELECONNECTIONS...WHICH SHOW A 225-250
METER POSITIVE ANOMALY NEAR 45N 75W...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER CYCLONE ABOUT 20 DEGREES TO ITS SOUTH NEAR THE
25TH PARALLEL. WILL FAVOR A WEAKENED VERSION OF THE GFS/CANADIAN
PER THE NOON MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Oct 02 2007 11:42 PM

The deal.

Looks like a few areas of interest for points in Florida and the Gulf of Mexico over the next week and a half. 90L doesn't look like it's going to do anything major. Situation and setup is quasi TD #10. If it follows the trends of TD #10, (formed from a wave, trough and ULL), look for a few rotating centers around a broader low tomorrow as things wind up a little. Could be anything from a broad low to a subtropical depression to even a mid-grade tropical storm by landfall somewhere between Galveston and Destin. Models want to say SW LA, but we saw that with TD #10, and they were all too far south pulling #10 west. It eventually got to Texas, but it rode up on 33/34N.

90L appears to be setting the table for a much larger threat the following week. 18z GFS puts landfalls a fairly large system inland after landfall between Mobile and PCB at 216 hours +/-. That's 9 days from lunchtime, or +/- Thursday of next week. As most of you probably know, many of the models have been hinting that the secondary area (east of Florida) would also close off and possibly turn into something far more substantial than what 90L could likely get to. It's still too far out to know. We should have some indication by the weekend if we're going to be facing a real threat next week. What the 18z GFS does is bring it down toward Cuba and over to the Yucatan then fades it up to the Panhandle. Based soley on the 18z GFS, I think anything prior developed would likely be weakening at landfall rather than strengthening as we've seen this year in the Western Gulf. This does not in any way mean that I believe we'll have a weakening, landfalling storm in the NE Gulf next Thursday and is solely based on the model and potential heat content from Jeff Master's first half of October update released today or yesterday.

*edit* link to the 216 hour 18z GFS (subject of the above)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_216.shtml

Steve

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 03 2007 01:50 AM

Re: The deal.

To my untrained eye, it looks like there's a new low pressure center forming at 24N and 85.5W. Does anyone know if the data supports this?

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 03 2007 02:00 AM

Re: The deal.

The eyes can play tricks, the latest quickscat showed no low. However, as most models are predicting, a low will form sometime tommorrow or in the next 48 hours, it MAY be a major player for the USA in the future.. right now, it's just one impressive disturbance. 90L looks ill, but it is Durinal minimum and maximum is coming up soon so maybe it will blossom tonight... it's all a wait and see, the GFS is very interesting tonight.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 03 2007 04:12 AM

Current Radar Winds

As of 0355Z, 1155PM EDT, the following Radar sites are indicating the wind speeds shown:

Slidell,LA- NNE at 23knots at 3000 feet.
Mobile,AL- NE at 29knots at 1000 feet.
Eglin AFB,FL- NE at 35knots at 2000 feet.
Tallahassee,FL- E at 33knots at 3000 feet.
Tampa,FL- SE at 20knots at 3000 feet

The wind speed values listed are the highest, Low Level Winds. In some cases there are wind speeds of equal value at higher altitudes. Greater than 10,000 feet.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 03 2007 04:34 AM

Re: Current Radar Winds

TCFA hoisted at 0300Z has some interesting things to say from NRL's perspective:

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY 125NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS, FLORIDA HAS AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1005MB, WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
THAT EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND ENCOUNTERS WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (82F/28C) AND MORE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. (LINK)

It would appear that 1005mb is a good estimate, for now. Given the probability of further deepening over the next 24-36 hours or so it is pretty hard to argue against at least a subtropical storm by Friday morning on the outside, and it does seem reasonable to assume that given enough time over the 28c waters a more tropical core will start to take shape.

Looking east for the next "big thing" as so many have been discussing and so many models have been hinting at, the trof and associated convection just east of the Bahamas continues to bubble, and in no small way. Deep convection to be sure. But nothing really taking at the surface, yet. I actually have my eyes a little glued on little old Melissa out near 20N 45W. While likely not a closed surface circulation earlier, it could be tonight, considering how well a blowup of deep convection has persisted in the eastern semicircle for many hours now. Would not surprise me to see some mention of this, at the very least, by 11AM if this trend continues.

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 03 2007 06:06 AM

Is Melissa making a comeback?

90L is churning along. but it's slow going for development. Of course it's slow moving so I guess it evens out. Maybe another 24 hours before it'll be able to develop.

What I'm more curious about, is that the LLC of Melissa firing off convection for the last 12 hours now? It had a well defined LLC 36 hours ago, and then this afternoon it started firing up some convection at the center. It's sheared of course, but the convection is certainly there. I'll be curious to see if it's still firing up in the morning. If it is, it'll start to catch some attention (right now it's sitting around 20N 45W and moving WNW).

The tattered remains of Karen? still kinda sitting out there. doing absolutely nothing.

(User)

Wed Oct 03 2007 11:24 AM

invest variety

yeah, i see 90L. it looks about as willing to develop as td 10 did last month. it has a little more room, so maybe it won't be as underwhelming. 91L has a good bit of model support and makes synoptic sense. track is sort of oddball (you see them go southwest when they're near the extreme western edge of the atlantic basin... usually not that far east), but given the pattern also makes sense. the karen remnant is gone under days of shear... melissa never totally went away, and is going to have a long post-system track in post-analysis. probably won't keep going.
by the way, nhc....
psst...
10n/40w.
low pressure.
upper high.
spinning.
HF 1124z03october

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 03 2007 12:22 PM

comebacks

So... are the remnants of Karen in the area of the Turks and Caicos moving into the area where convection has persisted and is that what gives the impetus to that Bahama area to gel?

I'm trying to understand or see where Karen would have been extrapolated wise and not sure if that is or isn't what is going on.

The beautiful wave down in the Atlantic is Melissa? I was away for a few days, didn't realize.

All i know is shear is relatively low down there and the conditions would support development. It looks like a big system though and Melissa always seemed tiny. Nice structure, good bones as they say.

Warm water.. why isn't more being said about this area?

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.jpg

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 03 2007 01:02 PM

Re: invest variety

What/where is 92L? I see it on the NRL site but no lat/long or sat images with it?

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 03 2007 01:18 PM

Re: invest variety

The image is up there now. Looks like 91L is a new wave at about 10N and 40W, while 92L is the Bahamas disturbance. They just posted an image for 92L. They've also just re-posted 14L Melissa in comeback mode. Getting a little sporty all of a sudden.

91L: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 03 2007 03:14 PM

Re: invest variety

Well, a recent Quikscat from 0844Z shows Melissa to still be more of an open wave at the surface, but one can't argue that she has had some intermittent close-offs from time to time, perhaps. Certainly, if nothing else, her LLC has remained intact, and convection never completely went away, either. I'm not confident that this all will be added post-season, as it is not entirely clear if they will feel this activity is sufficient, as it doesn't necessarily meet the requisites for being a tropical cyclone. I think we simply do not have enough scat passes, certainly recon, etc., to know for sure one way or another, right now.

The wave down near 10N 40W (now 91L) probably has the very best shot of becoming something classic, and fully tropical, in the near-term. Invests 90 & 92 have a lot of humble hybrid beginnings to work through, even before they could become classified as subtropical storms, let alone tropical storms. With all of the dry air enveloping the low, mid, and upper lows associated with 90L, it's got the ocean, but still might not have the time, considering how it is having to overcome such an impediment. Still, not out of the question that it gets a name. It has sure cleared a way by laying a path of juicier air and less hostile shear for 92L behind it. Stands to reason that 92 might ramp up as a more fully tropical cyclone than subtropical.

September tied the record for most named. October looks like it wants to at least try to follow in those footsteps. Also, during September we saw three record-setting storms: Felix, Humberto & Lorenzo. I wasn't able to really catch the particular TWC TU, but by what little smidgen I caught from the corner of my eye it looks like Dr. Lyons stated that 2007 is now tied for third place for most named subtropical cyclones (although only one, Andrea, remained tracked as such). Yet, despite all of this, the ACE is running a meager 60.6, as it stands... lots of systems, but shorter life-spans.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 03 2007 04:20 PM

Re: invest variety

NHC @1130

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

South florida should keep a close eye on this system.

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Oct 03 2007 04:45 PM

Re: invest variety

I wonder how long it will take before we get Tropical Storm or Subtropical Storm Noel?

(Forecast Lounge material was deleted.)

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 03 2007 07:35 PM

Re: invest variety

Looking at the end of the current RGB loop for 92L, there appears to be an LLC at 28N 71.3W. Is this an illusion, or is this the area to which the NHC is referring?

RGB Loop

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 03 2007 09:11 PM

Re: invest variety

I see that as well. Its tried to fire some convection over it but it gets blown south...perhaps more shear than thought?

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 03 2007 09:20 PM

Re: invest variety

Good observation, and my guess is that this may be the "more or less" point for which NHC ( or Navy? ) may have as the focal point for 92L. That said, I do not believe at all that this specific vorticity, will now or eventually turn into anything, but simply move westward with the low level flow. Until continued deep convection and then a more "stacked" low to mid level low develops ( which I DO anticipate will happen ), then would not be atypical to see such an eddy attempt to wrap up, but without the convection and thus falling pressures to maintain it. I believe that a low level center will eventually deepen within the broader low, probably a little farther south and east, within the continuously firing convection. If given enough time, my guess would be that formation would eventually center itself close to the middle of the upper high, thus having the divergence aloft, but without any shearing effect. Given a broader larger upper high, shear would be less a concern, than the "bubble" type upper high we have over 92L now..

(User)

Wed Oct 03 2007 10:53 PM

who wants to call noel?

we've got three good disturbances that could all potentially be noel. still have the ghosts of two tropical storms poking around east of the islands, too.
90L is trying to do its best impression of tropical depression 10. finally blowing some convection today.. it's got a well defined center but has been running around bare, even over that loaded central gulf water. all it takes is a good convective burst to mix those winds down... buoys out there have been reporting 25-30kt stuff on and off all day. then again, it might just scurry its way up to the louisiana coast and ditch ashore before it can develop. anybody's guess.
91L is that itcz feature under the ridge, which was actually a fairly well defined little circulation before all the convection showed up, that is slowly developing. the nhc ignored it for a couple days prior, but it's slowly getting its act together. none of the models like it, which is befuddling. it's going to develop. should do that quite nicely. run into shear and maybe recurve, maybe fight its way up under the big east coast ridge.
92L is trying to develop a center under the huge clockwise upper dome that is going to make an excellent vent once it gets together. it may be able to find ways to spit out surface vortices and try to develop where the developing isn't good.. but if it gets going, look out. if the globals are right it goes through the straits of florida and camps near the yucatan into next week. if they're wrong (and it develops sooner) it could come further north at florida. this thing is trouble all around if it gets going.
the remains of melissa keep noisily insisting they are there. karen's ghost is still floating near the virgin islands. something from either (or 91L if it gets up there) ought to tuck under the ridge behind 92L and come west as well. it will have to contend with the upper trough trying to form there, but could come riding west in force if the trough fractures and sends an upper low sw. in any case something ought to act up there... whether it can do anything is another issue.
that's enough to mind. we ought to dig deeper into the alphabet before the week is over. the flurry of weaklings in september got us well along.
HF 2252z03october

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 03 2007 11:00 PM

Re: who wants to call noel?

sorry if this has already been mentioned. But the low level circulation in the Gulf east of the convection and moving almost due north?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 04 2007 12:27 AM

Re: who wants to call noel?

Been watching 90L all day... and this afternoon its looks like it finally getting its act together... the location would pose some concern with me if it were a normal October, but i think once again Upper level winds have saved it from getting up to TS/Hurricane... I expect if the current trend holds... this may become Noel sometime in the morning... with landfall along the southern part of LA... some time late tomorrow into the night as a TD or a weak TS... i think it may have time to transition over too a warm core at this point... time will tell. There is small storms blowing up near the center... although there still is signs of a decent amount of shear...

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 04 2007 04:32 AM

Re: who wants to call noel?

90 sure looks like it's trying tonight.. perhaps a last-ditch effort.. a real "college try" before the influx of high shear and dry air from the northwest, in addition to all that dry air 90's been coping with thus far, inflicts another, and the potentially mortal, blow. By all appearances, 90 is attempting to become a tropical cyclone, rather than subtropical. The deepest convection keeps occurring closer to the center, than away, and scatterometer does show a tendency of the winds to increase in strength - if you can call it that - as they grow closer to the center. The strongest winds associated with 90L have consistently been a result of the pressure gradient from the High to its north and northwest. Without that, surface winds might be about 25 knots, as estimated by NRL. I saw a 40MPH sustained at an elevated oil rig (up over 100 feet, and not representative of the surface winds). So, there are certainly some stronger sustained winds in there that might be brought down in squalls. With hours left before this upcoming blast from the northwest, imho the next 20-30 hours are critical as to whether or not 90 ever gets a formal designation. After that, it's probably c'est la vie.

92L has piqued my interest some more tonight. I think I'm like many of us who appreciated watching that awol llc blasting off to the northwest earlier during daylight hours. Looking more and more like this will be where Florida gets at least its next round of wet, blustery weather from, at the very least. (In concert with the building high to its north) - With so much deep tropical moisture, outflow, developing and likely improving anticyclonic flow aloft, surface trofiness, et. al., I find it very hard to argue against something taking hold over the next 4 days or so from this feature.

Most recent SSD estimates:
03/2345 UTC 9.6N 43.4W TOO WEAK 91L
03/2345 UTC 24.8N 72.4W T1.0/1.0 92L
03/2345 UTC 26.8N 87.7W T1.5/1.5 90L

Edit - 92L is just looking better and better farther south and east, down near 21N 70W, isn't it? Scat shows the broad surface low centered much farther north and west, but it is really hard to let the eyeballs ignore the obvious - persistent, deep convection - and now with the large upper level anticyclone quite pronounced... Makes one wonder how much 90L gave up that 92L could take advantage of. On the face of it, it looks like it could be a lot.

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