you folks that have been watching the evolution of the current warm ENSO event have probably noticed how it peaked out early in the winter and how much the coverage of the positive sst anomalies in the pacific has dwindled. just lately a cool patch has started east of the dateline and is working its way westward. not a definite signal, but often enough when these things show up we'll end up in a la nina before the year is out. the atlantic is quite warm still, moreso to the east... but the gulf stream is also looking very charged. do not be surprised if the pacific cools off this year and the atlantic stays in overdrive.
HF 0232z19february