maybe the oncoming la nina is finally starting to assert itself in terms of seasonal pattern evolution. earlier this spring and late winter the analog patterns on the ncep 6-10/8-14 day outlooks were from mostly el nino regimes, with occasional others interspersed. the forecast for today shows a solid string analogs from la nina years. maybe the start of a trend we'll see repeat into the season.
la nina years usually have a slow june-july portion and then suddenly switch all the way on some time in august. more often than not it happens around the third week. nothing to say this one won't fit the bill, though. we'll probably see the big numbers this year... that seems fairly certain at this point. the big question will be whether the longwave pattern has the escape hatch in the western atlantic open.
HF 0234z24april