for those of you who love to watch the gfs burp up phantom (and sometimes real) tropical systems, it's starting to want to squeeze a low up out of the western caribbean in the week 2 period. it looks halfway feasible synoptically, but of course everything in may is a real longshot. in a few days if the models are trying to do something there with some consistency, it might be time to start watching closely. there are usually a few false alarms before we get anything real, every year.
there hasn't been a named may system in 25 consecutive seasons, with arlene in 1981 being the last. that's actually a drought of sorts... during that time april has coughed up a tropical storm and a subtropical storm. every decade or two on average may will produce a storm, if the long-term record is to be believed.
HF 0059z02may