On the six month hurricane and water temperature forecasts. I am not as concerned about the strength of the LaNina as I am concerned with the fact that there is NOT an ElNino (I refernce 2004 and 2005 just two examples). With respect to the water temperatures, I am MORE concerned that the Atlantic will be cooling and will not be as warm asthe Carribean later in the season. That means that more waves will have a chance to sneak past the Atlanticportionof the MDR instead of developing early and heading out to sea. In the mean time, if you revisit the forecast map, the temps in the Carribean and extreme southern GOMEX will be staying above average throughout the season. Of course, if this happens the math looks like this: More waves entering the Carribean, more waves/systems taking advantage of warmer temps closer to home, and even if the total season numbers are lower than forecast, we're gonna see more landfalls with this scenario.