some of the models have gotten a little more punchy with this system. several are keeping its vertical support (i.e. the core of the upper cutoff low) overhead longer, and pushing the thing further southwest over warmer waters. they tend to push it closer to the coast around midweek, and then let it wash out, upper westerlies ripping it up. whatever it does in the meantime will be a mite interesting. there's definitely some buzz about this thing, and most of the global models show it as a modest gale center. the end result one way or another will probably be that of a persistent late noreaster/perhaps tropical storm in southeast coastal waters, and maybe something for the folks in the coastal plain from north florida to north carolina if it decides to come much closer. has to act quick--this is an anomalous sort of synoptic feature that will not allow days and days for organization. it may look more possible than earlier, but anything in may is still quite a stretch. note there has not been a landfalling tropical cyclone in the u.s. in may since the 1970s, and those were subtropical.
on the side, it's a sad sight in greensburg, kansas. that may have been the first F-5 tornado in the u.s. in some years.
HF 2357z05may