just gonna call it that since ssd has tagged it as such. i can't access fnmoc, so don't know if those guys have an invest up on it. would have the same number anyway.
right now the low appears much better defined than earlier today, a bit more secluded from the frontal structure, but still an extratropical frontal low. there is spotty convection near the secluding portion. still a big sweep of mid-level dry air and cold air stratocumulus involved in the center. what i'm betting is that is the center gets closer to the gulfstream ssts (running in the upper 70s) and secludes a bit more, enough deep convection will form to get the nhc started on it. at least everybody here will be hollering about it. whatever they choose to go with, i'm sure plenty of folks will gripe about their call on its classification--as usual.
deep layer lows this strong over borderline tropical ssts at the fringes of the season develop often enough for this big boy to merit attention. the fact that it's blowing aplenty in coastal waters and kicking the surf around is doing that all by itself. something i was a little nervous about personally was what the wildfires in south georgia would do under the conditions west of the gale. judging from the smoke plume it looks like the one near racepond, georgia really took off today. fire danger is pretty serious for today and tomorrow at least.
HF 2257z07may