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more globals showing the thing secluding and developing a warm vertical profile. it's fitting the earlier phase space diagrams that showed it going symmetric warm core. there's a bit more convection, mostly in a loose semicircle maybe 75-150 miles north and west of the center, sporadic elsewhere.
sucker will be going over near threshold ssts tomorrow. with the existing cold pool aloft it isn't very hard to see this thing transitioning. i don't know how far it will make it towards becoming subtropical, but if the low starts working like a semi-tropical system and tapping non-baroclinic energy sources, all bets are off on the models showing it washing out wed-thu.
HF 0506z08may
I'm glad I'm not the new director of the NHC, because this thing is looking more and more like a duck the closer it gets to the coast. Don't know what the wind field looks like currently, but the AVN loop makes it a tough call I imagine. It looks to me like NHC should pull the trigger today, but with the system moving rapidly toward Jacksonville, I'm betting they won't pulled it for about 7 months (in the post-season analysis). Fortunately it does not look to be moving as far southward as it once was so I don't know if it will be able to get into the GOM.
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Re: gale 90L