Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 081046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAY 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 2N40W 2N51W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG
ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
14W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ACTIVITY IS FROM 4S-3N
BETWEEN 27W-42W.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN OCCLUDED 1001 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 76.5W AT
08/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 250NM E OF THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA
BORDER...MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. A STORM WARNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN AFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE AREA N OF 29N W
OF 76W BUT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX TO GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS WAS VERIFIED BY LAST EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH
SHOWED 50-60 KT WINDS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THESE WINDS ARE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE BAHAMAS. BUOY 41010 HAS BEEN
REPORTING 20-25 FT SEAS AT 16 SEC OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE REGIONAL WW3 MODEL NOW SEEMS ON TRACK WITH THE HEIGHTS BUT
CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE PERIODS WHICH WILL FURTHER ADD TO
THE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS UPON SHOALING. LIGHTNING DATA HAS BEEN
DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN WITHIN
150NM N AND W OF THE CENTER. THE MAIN THREAT...HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO CONTINUE MOVING THE LOW
TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA/GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS
REGARDING EXPECTED OFFSHORE AND COASTAL IMPACTS.