This evening, Andrea is looking better than it did a few days ago from a tropical standpoint, but it's not very well organized overall. The persistent convective blowups on the SE side are not translating over the center and often die nearly as fast as they fire. They are likely being driven by the Gulf Stream and the marginal SSTs found there. Everything that satellite shows over the center is just a cirrus canopy, a milky white in visible and light blues and yellows on color-enhanced IR imagery. Ash from the fires to the west plus upper level convergence (confluence -- winds coming together) on the western side of the storm are contributing to the lack of convection there. Essentially, it lacks the "organized" part to its convection and thus is not a classified tropical system. Seeing that on satellite and having other data available to them at least partially led to the NHC's decision (on top of resources).
All in all, Andrea and its remnants have had a good run, but I think the end is near. Water vapor imagery shows a vort max rounding toward the Big Bend region of Florida that should give this just enough of a kick to escape out the escape hatch toward the north and east and into the midlatitudes. Small chance that this doesn't happen and it gets trapped beneath a weak upper ridge to its north and west, but smart money is on the other evolution right now.
|