anybody noticed that if it were during the normal season, that andrea would still be getting advisories? that bunk about 'organized convection' is nothing new--a sheared warm-core system generating tropical storm conditions is a tropical storm. andrea has a history of sitting on the fence, but leaning into the realm of tropical cyclones, and getting late calls. in a few months the post-analysis will be out and i'm willing to bet that the nhc will have this leg of andrea's life cycle as a tropical depression or storm. it's been an interesting, quirky storm that has tested the nhc's ability to stick to routine advisories and make decisions on how to operationally contend with it.
tonight it's blowing a decent burst of convection on it's east side, as it's been doing most of the day. there's clearly outflow from the thunderstorms, and you can see the partially exposed, small llc slowly speeding up to ene ahead of an approaching upper trough. most of the globals show it captured and finishing up as a deepening frontal low out in the north atlantic, and that looks like the end of things.
past andrea there doesn't look like much on the horizon. gfs is sending pulses of tropcial moisture up in the western caribbean and tagging them with surface lows, but the shear appears oppressively high and these will probably just be the usual type of may rain events that get fed up ahead of mid-latitude troughs. once the upper shear begins to recede, as we get into the early summer, these things are more likely to produce a system. andrea is probably the warning shot for a fairly active season. it may be a couple of months or so before things really start to go, though.
HF 0536z13may