EAST...
CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND THE
SLOW UKMET WITH PROGRESSION OF E COAST VORTEX D5-6. THE MODEL TRY
TO INCORPORATE SOME ENERGY FROM THE SUBTROPICS INTO ERN
SYSTEM...USING IT TO SPIN UP DEEP SFC CYCLONE OFFSHORE. TIMING OF
THIS INFUSION IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE IT DEPENDS ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE
TROF BECOMES EARLY IN THE PD. IF SYSTEM AMPLIFIES SHARPLY
EARLY...AND IS ABLE TO SEPARATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE MAIN BAND
OF WLYS...THE SUBTROPICAL INTERACTION WOULD BE
MAXIMIZED...ALLOWING ENTIRE VORTEX TO DEEPEN AND REMAIN CUT OFF
FARTHER S AND LONGER...POSING A GREATER THREAT TO THE ERN
SEABOARD.

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