Models picking up on a system..possibly tropical in the SE gulf of Mexico by Fri-Sat....

Well its still not clear but the models are slowly converging on something now. The GFS now shows a 1005mb low crossing SW florida on Saturday. Along with the Nogaps.... this is also alined with the ECMWF. CMC and UKMet have it more N towards the Panhandle. Even the GFDL is picking up on a 1004-1006mb low Friday night nearing SW florida. (check the 18z EPAC system).

All in all its not clear..0z runs will tell some more..and consistancy till the low develops will give us a idea if its organized or if anything develops at all. In 24hrs or so..we will have a better idea.

Low is currently near 14.6N and 78.5W and moving WNW towards the Nic-Hond boarder by later Tuesday.. then as a upper trough-cutoff low develop over the N GOM on Weds-Sat moisture will feed into the system from the EPAC and pull anything down there N towards the SE GOM by Friday.