Ok. Todays take on the SW Carib system so far...
It is still getting model support with a weak and quite broad system set to move across the Yucatan, or through the Yucatan Channel. Some models develop quite an intense system and take into the FL big bend (CMC) while others (UKMET) take a still weak system across the Big Bend but develop it off the GA / SC coast. GFDL takes a developing system just to the SE of the Keys and develops it off the east FL coast. General time frame for Florida impacts is late Friday. Now, a browse of the latest visible loops from GHCC show that there is a circulation - albeit small and relatively ill defined - centred about 15'N, 80'W, moving west or just north of due west. Convective activity has been almost non-existant, but has now begun to develop and increase just to the NE of the circulation. Could this be the start of what the models have been suggesting? Maybe, or maybe not