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Looks like a broad surface low exists near 17N-86W , just off the north coast of Honduras. The models indicate that this low will slowly drift north to the north coast of the Yucatan in 36-48 hrs.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
If it moves into the gulf it will run into unfavorable upper level winds meaning 30-50kt windshear.
Steering winds will most likely keep this a southeast event.
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