Given what we're seeing now on satellite and in the recon data, I strongly believe that we need to discount the majority of the model guidance at this point. None of the models have nearly as well-defined of a system as we presently have, making their tracks and depictions suspect since they tend to jump the low center around more than can probably be expected at this point.

Satellite loops suggest that the storm is moving just slightly east of due north right now, maybe 010 degrees. The vort max in the Gulf is currently centered in the N. Gulf SSW of New Orleans and is nearly stationary or drifting slowly toward the east. Long-term loops suggest no significant movement despite influences from last night's upstream MCS and a strong Pacific jet across the SW US. It's quite possible that the convection associated with our disturbance/storm is trying to amplify the ridging downstream just slightly, potentially providing a slight hindrance to this feature moving more easterly at this point. It, along with the movement of the storm to the north, is probably also reducing the storm-relative shear over the storm.

Steering flow in the mid-levels and extrapolation of the vort max would suggest that not much has changed to my threat regions outlined from last night, specifically from the Big Bend to about Crystal River. If forced to choose, I would go very near Cedar Key. This is west of most of the earlier model guidance. It will be interesting to see what the NHC does at 5p in terms of track and watches/warnings. Intensity? Moderate TS is still the thinking, probably peaking off-shore overnight and then weakening near landfall due to cooler SSTs (unless it gets a significant baroclinic boost).